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Bitcoin Depot Inc. (BTM)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 delivered sequential revenue growth and significant non-GAAP profitability expansion: revenue $136.8M vs $135.3M in Q3; Adjusted EBITDA $12.0M (+34% YoY) and Adjusted gross profit $25.4M (+18% YoY) .
  • Versus estimates, revenue beat consensus ($136.8M vs $131.5M*) and Adjusted EBITDA materially exceeded consensus ($12.0M vs $8.8M*), while EPS missed (actual -$0.229* vs $0.025*) due to GAAP complexities and NCI attribution .
  • Management reintroduced guidance: Q1 2025 revenue $151–$154M (+9–11% YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA $12–$14M (>200% YoY), signaling confidence in kiosk optimization and relocations; seasonality expected with stronger Q2 than Q1/Q4 .
  • Strategic catalysts: Australia launch (300 kiosks shipped), Circle K U.S. agreement extended ~12 months, and potential cash dividend alongside term-loan paydown of ≥$9M in 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Non-GAAP margins inflected positively: Adjusted gross margin increased ~400 bps YoY (18.6% in narrative; 19% in reconciliation), driven by optimized markups, lower armored costs, and declining per-machine rents .
  • Network scale and partnerships: 8,457 active machines exiting 2024; Circle K U.S. extension (+12 months) and new SW convenience chain deployments support footprint and volumes .
  • Balance sheet/cash flow progress: $31M in cash/crypto; $22.5M operating cash in 2024; plan to pay down term loan by ≥$9M in 2025; kiosk lease balance targeted to fall from $8M to $3.5M by year-end .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue declined YoY on regulatory headwinds: Q4 2024 revenue $136.8M vs $148.4M in Q4 2023, primarily due to California legislation and relocations to optimize fleet profitability .
  • EPS miss vs consensus despite improved Adjusted EBITDA, reflecting GAAP complexities (NCI attribution) and interest expense; Q4 EPS actual -$0.229* vs est $0.025* .
  • Continued state-level regulatory overhang (California, CT, VT, MN); management expects federal pro-crypto tone but notes state outcomes vary; New York license remains pending without timeline certainty .

Financial Results

GAAP Financials (comparative)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Q4 2023
Revenue ($USD Millions)$163.1 $135.3 $136.8 $148.4
Income from Operations ($USD Millions)$7.6 $5.5 $10.4 $3.8
Net Income ($USD Millions, consolidated)$4.4 $2.3 $5.4 $(1.7)

EPS and Estimate Comparison

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)$0.03*$(0.01)*$0.025*
EPS Actual ($USD)$(0.1103)*$(0.0046)*$(0.2285)*
Revenue Consensus ($USD Millions)$148.7*$134.8*$131.5*
Revenue Actual ($USD Millions)$163.1 $135.3 $136.8
EBITDA Consensus ($USD Millions)$9.0*$7.1*$8.8*
Adjusted EBITDA Actual ($USD Millions)$12.7 $9.2 $12.0

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Non-GAAP Profitability

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Q4 2023
Adjusted Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$26.4 $22.4 $25.4 $21.6
Adjusted Gross Margin (%)16.2% 16.6% 19.0% 15.0%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$12.7 $9.2 $12.0 $9.0
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)7.8% 6.8% 8.8% 7.8%

Note: Press release narrative references 18.6% adjusted gross margin; reconciliation table shows 19.0% .

KPIs

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Active Kiosks (#)8,180 ~8,300 ~8,457
Kiosks Installed <1 Year (#)~3,000 ~3,600 ~3,800
Bitcoin Treasury (BTC)11.3 BTC 11.3 BTC 94 BTC (recently increased)
Cash & Cryptocurrencies ($USD Millions)$43.9 cash $32.2 cash $31.0 combined
Debt ($USD Millions)$50.6 (incl. finance leases) $53.5 (incl. finance leases) $60.9 (incl. finance leases and profit share)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueQ1 2025None (no formal guidance in Q3 2024) $151M–$154M; +9–11% YoY vs Q1 2024 Reintroduced; raised vs prior year
Adjusted EBITDAQ1 2025None $12M–$14M; >200% YoY vs Q1 2024 Reintroduced; significant increase
Seasonality2025—Expect Q2 revenue significantly higher than Q1 and Q4 Maintained/clarified
Term Loan PaydownFY 2025—Plan to pay down ≥$9M New capital allocation
Kiosk Lease BalanceFY 2025—Target decline from $8M to $3.5M by year-end New operational target
Dividend2025Exploring dividend in 2025 Potential cash dividend reaffirmed Maintained potential
Australia Launch2025Application near final stages 300 kiosks shipped; launch expected in 2025 Progressing

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Prior-2)Q3 2024 (Prior-1)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
Dividend/Capital ReturnExploring dividend; options include buybacks/dividends Dividend referenced; strong cash flow Reaffirmed potential; preferred dividend repaid; optionality highlighted Building momentum
Bitcoin TreasuryAdopted BTC treasury; small but growing 11.3 BTC held; opportunistic additions Increased to 94 BTC; confidence in BTC Expanded holdings
Regulatory (State/Federal)CA impact; working with legislators; NYDFS process ongoing Expect more favorable federal stance; state outcomes vary Pro-crypto federal tone; not worried about Crypto ATM Fraud Prevention Act; state-by-state efforts continue Cautious improvement
Kiosk Optimization/RelocationsHeavy relocations; ramp takes months; >3,000 kiosks <1yr 3,600 kiosks <1yr; payback 4–5 months 3,800 kiosks <1yr; margin uplift from markups, armored, rents Ongoing optimization
International ExpansionPuerto Rico launched; Australia application near final 300 shipped for Australia; targeting more countries Australia launch expected in 2025; evaluating ≥2 more countries Advancing
Retail PartnershipsNouria Energy 57 locations New SW chain ~50 locations; Circle K extension preview Circle K U.S. agreement extended ~12 months; more SW deployments Strengthening

Management Commentary

  • “Our kiosk growth and optimization plan are starting to show through in our financial results… Q4 adjusted gross profit was up 18% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA was up 34%.”
  • “Our business model inherently throws off healthy cash flow… potential to be the only company in the world associated with crypto that will pay a dividend.”
  • “We ended 2024 with approximately 8,457 active machines… we expect to see continued growth in our kiosk footprint in 2025.”
  • “We have shipped over 300 kiosks for our Australia launch… targeting additional countries for further expansion.”
  • “We anticipate Q1 revenues to be between $151 million and $154 million… Adjusted EBITDA… between $12 million and $14 million.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Market growth and competition: Industry kiosk growth modest; focus on less competitive areas to drive revenues; smaller operators struggling with regulation and competitiveness .
  • Regulatory outlook: Management not worried about Crypto ATM Fraud Prevention Act under a pro-crypto administration; state-level outcomes remain variable, with ongoing lobbying/education .
  • Fleet/inventory and growth path: ~1,600+ kiosks in inventory including Australia; potential to reach ~10,000 installed machines depending on expansion pace .
  • Margin drivers and OpEx: Gross margin uplift from optimized markups, armored service renegotiations, and lower rents; OpEx run-rate ~$15M with room for modest reduction (legal costs) .
  • International ramp economics: Near-term cash burn in new markets like Australia, but small relative to overall scale; kiosks ramp to profitability in months .
  • M&A: Prefers organic growth given lower kiosk acquisition costs; international M&A more likely if strategic licenses/retailers are included .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 revenue beat: $136.8M actual vs $131.5M consensus* (+~$5.3M), reflecting improved kiosk optimization and relocations; sequential growth from Q3 ($135.3M) .
  • Q4 Adjusted EBITDA beat: $12.0M actual vs $8.8M consensus*, aided by lower D&A and operating expenses .
  • Q4 EPS miss: -$0.229* actual vs $0.025* consensus, driven by GAAP and NCI attribution despite consolidated net income of $5.4M .
  • Guidance implies upward revisions: Q1 2025 revenue guide ($151–$154M) and Adjusted EBITDA ($12–$14M) point to stronger profitability and top-line vs prior expectations .

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Non-GAAP profitability inflects: Adjusted gross margin and Adjusted EBITDA improved materially YoY; further gains tied to markups, vendor pricing, and rent optimization .
  • Guidance reintroduction is a key catalyst: Q1 2025 guide signals accelerating momentum; expect stronger Q2 seasonality to bolster the setup .
  • Strategic expansion: Australia launch and extended Circle K agreement support footprint and volumes; watch for updates on additional countries .
  • Capital allocation: ≥$9M term-loan paydown, declining lease balances, and potential dividend enhance shareholder appeal amid healthy operating cash flow .
  • Regulatory risk moderating: Federal tone more favorable; state-by-state outcomes still require engagement; California headwinds drove 2024 declines but are now lapped .
  • Fleet productivity tailwind: 3,800 kiosks <1 year should ramp; relocations present 4–5 month payback, supporting 2025 growth .
  • Near-term trading lens: Emphasize revenue/EBITDA beats vs consensus and Q1 guide; monitor Australia launch timing and dividend decision for upside catalysts .